Serie A GW38 Predictions
Free AI Betting Tips & xG Analysis

The Derby della Capitale arrives with Roma chasing a Champions League place and Lazio simply chasing pride. The Giallorossi are flying — unbeaten in 11 at home, scoring in their last 11 home games, with a commanding 2.17 home PPG and 1.75 xG. Lazio, by contrast, have been a major disappointment: no European football next season, a Coppa Italia final hammering by Inter days ago, and a striking inability to score — failing to find the net in 16 league games this season. With third-choice keeper Furlanetto in line for a debut and Romagnoli banned, Lazio look fragile. Roma have won three of the last four meetings conceding just once, and the data screams a low-scoring home win — BTTS sits at just 23%.

AC Milan travel to Genoa needing a win to keep their Champions League hopes alive, but the Rossoneri have been in freefall — four points from their last six Serie A games, their worst run since 2019. Genoa, safe and free of pressure under Daniele De Rossi, have won five of their last eight at home and famously beat Milan 3-0 in the most recent meeting. Milan are missing a front three of Leao, Saelemaekers and Estupinan to suspension, though their away record (1.94 PPG, 56% win rate) remains far stronger than Genoa's home form. The H2H heavily favours Milan historically (19 wins to 7), and despite the chaos, the visitors' greater quality and motivation point to a road win — though Genoa's home fight keeps the goal markets open.

Juventus host Fiorentina in their final home game of the season, two wins from sealing a Champions League place. Luciano Spalletti's side are unbeaten in 11 across all competitions and boast the best defensive record of any team in Europe's top five leagues over the last nine matchdays — just two goals conceded with seven clean sheets. Their home numbers are commanding: 2.18 xG, a 0.99 xGA and 2.06 PPG. Fiorentina are mathematically safe and arrive without a win in four, managing just one goal across those games. Precedent is stark too: Juventus have lost only one of their last 17 home meetings with Fiorentina. With both defences strong — 12 clean sheets between them in their last 18 Serie A games — a tight, low-scoring home win is the standout read.

Champions League-chasing Como host a Parma side with little left to play for in their final home game of an outstanding season. Cesc Fabregas' men sit sixth and could still climb as high as second, and their recent shift to defensive solidity has brought three clean sheets. The home numbers are excellent — 1.83 xG, a miserly 0.86 xGA and 1.83 PPG. Parma are 13th, safe, and have nothing concrete to chase: they can no longer reach seventh, and their away output is weak (1.03 xG, 0.67 goals per away game). With Como's home dominance against an unmotivated, low-scoring visitor, this profiles as a comfortable home win, though BTTS sits below 60% and Parma's lack of cutting edge points to a controlled afternoon for the Lariani.

Already-relegated Pisa host Napoli, who arrive needing a win to seal Champions League qualification. The contrast is stark: Pisa have lost their last seven matches by an aggregate of 17-2 and have not beaten Napoli since January 1986, while the Partenopei are unbeaten in this fixture for 40 years. Pisa's home form is the worst in the division — 0.56 PPG, scoring in just 39% of home games — and they will be without two suspended players from last week's red cards. Napoli are not in peak form, having lost two of their last three on the road, but their away numbers (1.67 PPG, 1.46 xG) and their need for points make them strong favourites. A comfortable away win is the dominant read against a demotivated, depleted home side.

Double winners Inter Milan play their final home game of a triumphant season, welcoming relegated Hellas Verona to San Siro. Fresh from adding the Coppa Italia to their Scudetto, Cristian Chivu's side may rotate, but the gulf here is enormous: Inter have won eight straight home meetings with Verona, who have failed to beat them in 29 consecutive league games. Inter's home numbers are imperious — 2.44 PPG, 78% win rate, 2.09 xG — while Verona are the division's weakest travellers (0.67 PPG, 11% away win rate) and have failed to score in 19 league games this season. With Verona missing several players and top scorer Orban dropped for disciplinary reasons, a comfortable, goal-laden home win is the overwhelming expectation.

Atalanta host Bologna at the Gewiss Stadium needing only to avoid a heavy defeat to lock up a Conference League place. La Dea arrive in good heart after ending a five-game winless run with a 3-2 win at Milan, and their home form is solid — 1.83 PPG, 1.89 xG and a strong 1.09 xGA. Bologna travel as one of the division's best away sides (1.72 PPG, joint fourth-best road record) and have won six of their last eight, but they need to win by three goals to keep faint European hopes alive — a very tall order. The head-to-head favours Atalanta (17 wins to 9), and with both sides capable of scoring, BTTS and the goal markets are live, but Atalanta's home edge and Bologna's near-impossible task point to the hosts taking at least a point.

Cagliari host Torino at the Unipol Domus needing just a point to be mathematically safe in their final home game of the season. The Sardinians have steadied with 10 points from their last five games, and while their home output is modest (1.14 xG, 1.22 PPG), they have only to avoid defeat to secure survival. Torino arrive mid-table with little to play for — a top-10 finish is a long shot — and their away form is poor, with just one win in their last nine road games and the worst defensive record outside the bottom two. The head-to-head is perfectly even (9 wins each from 25), but with Cagliari able to play for a draw and Torino unmotivated and leaky away, a cagey low-scoring contest is the likely outcome — BTTS sits at just 33%.

Sassuolo host Lecce at the Mapei Stadium in a fixture that means far more to the visitors. The Neroverdi, comfortably 11th, are chasing a fourth straight home win and a first top-half finish since 2020-21 — they have won five of their last six in Reggio Emilia. Lecce, by contrast, are fighting for their lives: 17th and just one point clear of the relegation zone, they could drop into the bottom three with a defeat. But Lecce's away record is poor (0.83 PPG, 22% win rate) and they are a notably low-scoring side — just 0.67 goals per away game and failing to score in half their road trips. The H2H favours Sassuolo (4 wins to 1), and the hosts' home momentum against a desperate but blunt Lecce points to a home win, with the goal markets leaning under.

Udinese host a relegation-threatened Cremonese at the Bluenergy Stadium with the visitors needing points but travelling with a woeful record. Cremonese have lost eight of their nine away games in 2026, failing to score in their last two road defeats, and their away xGA of 1.97 underlines a leaky, fragile side on the road. Udinese, mid-table and free of pressure, are in fine form themselves — 10 points from their last five, three games unbeaten, and clean sheets in their last two. Their home numbers (1.41 xG, 1.21 xGA) comfortably outstrip Cremonese's away output (0.94 xG, 0.83 PPG). Udinese have not lost to Cremonese since 1996. Cremonese's desperation keeps a sliver of value in their attacking play, but the data points firmly to a home win.