Ligue 1 2026-27 Predictions
Free AI Betting Tips & xG Analysis

A Europa League place is directly on the line as Marseille host Rennes on the final day. OM sit sixth, three points behind their visitors, and a win would leapfrog Rennes into the Europa League thanks to a superior goal difference. Even a draw may suffice given OM's strong goal difference over seventh-placed Monaco. Marseille's home form is excellent — 2.13 PPG, 1.77 xG, scoring in 94% of home games — and they are unbeaten in nine straight league meetings with Rennes at the Velodrome. Rennes arrive in fine form under Franck Haise, winning five of their last six, but their away defence is leaky (1.88 conceded per away game). A single point secures Europa League football for Rennes, while OM's home strength and the H2H record point to the hosts edging a tense, goal-friendly finale.

Lyon can seal a return to the Champions League with a win over already-second Lens on the final day. Paulo Fonseca's side sit third and a victory guarantees at least a qualifying spot, with a Lille slip-up potentially handing them direct entry to the League Phase. Lyon's home form is outstanding — a 75% home win rate, 2.31 PPG, and goals in every single home game this season. Lens, meanwhile, have nothing left to chase: their title bid ended in midweek and second place is locked, so with a Coupe de France final to come, Pierre Sage's side are unlikely to over-commit. Lens have dropped points in five straight away games and are winless on the road against the current top four. Lyon's motivation and home dominance make them strong favourites.

Strasbourg host Monaco on the final day with very different stakes. Le Racing are locked into eighth and cannot move, but they showed fight in midweek with a 2-1 win at Brest and can claim back-to-back league wins in May for the first time since 2022. Monaco, by contrast, need a win and favours elsewhere to sneak into the Conference League — their European hopes hang by a thread. Strasbourg's home form is solid (1.69 PPG, 0.94 conceded at home, scoring in 81% of home games), but they are missing top scorer Joaquin Panichelli to a cruciate injury. Monaco have points in seven of their last eight away games and have won their last three trips to the Meinau in the league. With Monaco's desperation and away pedigree against a deflated home side, the visitors are narrowly favoured in an open contest.

Brest host Angers in a season finale where both sides have already secured Ligue 1 survival, lending the contest a relaxed end-of-season feel. Brest's recent form has slumped — three straight defeats and just two points from their last 24 — but they have stayed competitive at home, losing only twice at the Stade Francis-Le Ble since February and scoring in all but one home game in 2026. Angers are in even worse shape, winless in eight and managing only six points from a possible 36, with a particularly poor away record (just three away wins all season, 19% win rate). The H2H favours Brest, and Angers have not won at this ground since 2020. With both teams safe and seemingly already on their summer break, a draw is a real possibility, though Brest's home edge gives them the slight nod.

Already-relegated Nantes host Toulouse in their final Ligue 1 game before dropping to Ligue 2 after 13 seasons in the top flight. The Canaries have endured a miserable campaign — set for their lowest-ever points tally — with just 29 league goals, one of the division's worst attacks, though they did stun Marseille 3-0 at home earlier this month. Toulouse arrive in far better spirits, lifted into the top half by back-to-back wins over Lyon and Strasbourg, and still with an outside chance of finishing ninth. But Toulouse's away form is a real concern — five defeats in their last seven on the road — and the last three Ligue 1 meetings between these sides have all ended level, including a 2-2 draw earlier this season. With Nantes' defensive fragility against Toulouse's momentum, the visitors are narrowly favoured in a tight finale.

Lille host Auxerre needing a win to secure third place and a Champions League return. Bruno Genesio's side are on a remarkable 13-match unbeaten run since February, conceding just five goals across that span — the best defensive record in the division by some distance. Their home numbers are excellent (1.73 xG, 0.98 xGA, 1.81 PPG) and they are unbeaten in six at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Auxerre, however, arrive with two wins on the bounce and are scrapping to avoid the relegation playoff — a victory would lift them clear. But their away record is dismal: just one away win all season, a 6% win rate, and they fail to score in half their road games. The H2H favours Lille heavily (6 wins to 2), and the hosts' quality, motivation and home strength point to a controlled home win.

Le Havre travel to Lorient on the final day fighting for Ligue 1 survival, sitting 14th and just one point above the relegation playoff place. Lorient have nothing concrete to chase — ninth and safe — but their home form is genuinely strong: a 50% home win rate, 1.88 home PPG, and remarkably they have scored in every single home game this season (16 in a row). They thrashed Metz 4-0 last time out. Le Havre, by contrast, are mired in an 11-match winless run and have a dreadful away record — a 6% win rate, just one away win all season, and they have never won at the Stade du Moustoir. With two suspended players and a fragile defence (1.72 xGA away), Le Havre look vulnerable. Lorient's home scoring streak and Le Havre's away woes point to a home win, with goals likely.

Nice host bottom side Metz on the final day in a match they simply must win to have any hope of avoiding the relegation playoff. The Eagles sit 16th, level on points with 15th-placed Auxerre and one behind 14th-placed Le Havre, so survival depends on bettering one of those results. Nice's form is poor — winless in their last seven, including a damaging loss to relegation rival Auxerre — but they face the perfect opponent. Metz are already relegated, rooted to the bottom, and winless in 21 league games. Crucially, Metz's away record is the worst in the division: a 6% win rate, 0.38 PPG, and a leaky 2.00 xGA on the road. Nice won eight of the last 15 H2H meetings and, with home advantage and far greater motivation, are heavy favourites to take all three points.

The season ends with a Paris derby as newly-promoted Paris FC host champions PSG at the Stade Jean Bouin. Paris FC have enjoyed a comfortable maiden top-flight campaign, sitting 11th and safe, and have won four of their last five home games — including a 4-0 demolition of Brest. PSG, already crowned champions with a nine-point cushion, have one eye firmly on the Champions League final on May 30 and may rotate, with Zaire-Emery rested and Hakimi injured. Still, the gulf in quality is vast: PSG's away numbers are imperious (2.30 PPG, 2.10 xG) and they are unbeaten in seven across all competitions. PSG will also be motivated by revenge — Paris FC knocked them out of the Coupe de France in January. Despite likely rotation, PSG's class points to an away win, though Paris FC's home form keeps the goal markets alive.