La Liga GW37 Predictions Today
Free AI Betting Tips & xG Analysis

Relegation 6-pointer at Montilivi. Girona winless in 7, sitting 18th with La Liga survival on the line — only a win secures their top-flight status. Elche's away record is the worst in the division (1W 4D 13L) and manager Sarabia is suspended from the touchline. xG slightly favors Girona at home (1.40 vs 1.04). Michel's side cannot afford anything less than 3 points. Elche have scored in 7 straight, keeping BTTS firmly in play at 67%.

Celta need 3 points to lock in Europa League qualification — Getafe sit 3 behind on inferior goal difference. Sevilla already safe with nothing to play for. Despite Celta's surprisingly poor home record (5W 5D 8L), the motivation gap is decisive. Sevilla's defense leaks (59 goals conceded, joint-2nd worst in La Liga), and Celta's pace on the flanks should exploit space. xG slightly favors the hosts (1.37 vs 1.21). BTTS at 64% — both sides score regularly.

Mallorca must win to keep La Liga hopes alive against an already-relegated Oviedo. Visitors have not scored in 4 straight, hold the worst goalscoring record in the division (26 goals) and worst away PPG (0.56). Vedat Muriqi (22 goals, 2nd top scorer in La Liga) carries Mallorca's attack. Home record is solid (8W 6D 4L) and Demichelis' side scored in last 5 at Son Moix. xG dominance (1.44 vs 1.09 + Oviedo concedes 2.17 away) points to a comfortable home win.

Espanyol arrive in form, looking for 3 wins in a row after a 2-1 victory at Osasuna and another win before that. Real Sociedad have not won in 7 La Liga matches, despite already securing Europa League via Copa del Rey. Sociedad's away form has collapsed (3W 7D 8L), conceding heavily — 4-3 loss at home to Valencia last time out. xG slight edge to Espanyol at home (1.51 vs 1.36). Both attacks willing, both defenses leak — BTTS 64%.

Arbeloa's farewell at Bernabéu before Mourinho's stunning return. Real Madrid finish a trophyless second, 11 points behind champions Barcelona. Vinicius pulled out for Brazil World Cup prep, but Mbappé (24 goals) leads the attack alongside Bellingham. Athletic out of European hopes despite Champions League involvement this season, away form (22% wins) suggests routine Madrid victory. Home dominance: 83% home win rate, 2.26 xG per home game, defensive solidity. Athletic missing Williams brothers — Nico injured, brother Inaki to lead but Athletic away xG just 1.46.

Rayo chase a Conference League spot just days before their final against Crystal Palace in Leipzig. Alaves safe but want to end home season on a high — back-to-back home wins for first time since September 2024. Rayo unbeaten in 6 league games but heavy rotation likely with one eye on Wednesday's final. Toni Martinez (13 goals, 8 in last 9) is Alaves' threat. Rayo 4 away wins all came after scoring first. xG slight edge to Alaves home (1.42 vs 1.27).

Barcelona's title-winning campaign ends at Mestalla. Champions arrive after 3-1 win over Betis, sitting 11 points clear at the top. Valencia chase 7th and a Conference League playoff spot, 2 points behind Getafe. Lewandowski farewell at the club — Polish striker has 9 goals in 6 H2H vs Valencia. Triple return for Barcelona: Rashford, De Jong, Torres all back in training. Barcelona's best away record in division (37 pts from 18 games), 2.06 xG away, 94% scoring rate. Last 4 H2H Barca won by 6-0, 7-1, 4-2, 2-1.

Two teams with plenty to play for in the final round. Getafe sit 7th — Conference League playoff spot — but only 1 point ahead of Rayo with Valencia 2 behind. Osasuna 16th, just 2 points above the drop zone. Both attacks weak (Getafe scored 31, Osasuna 44), both defenses solid at home/away splits favor under. Getafe's home Under 2.5 hits 78%, Osasuna away Under 2.5 hits 61%. Suspensions to Getafe's defense (Dakonam) and attack (Satriano) hurt the hosts. Budimir (17 goals) is Osasuna's main weapon. Classic Bordalas tactical grind expected.

Betis already locked into 5th and Champions League qualification — first since 2005-06. Pellegrini's side end the season at La Cartuja, unbeaten in 10 home games (5W 5D). Levante battle for survival from 15th, 2 points clear of bottom 3, having won 3 straight games (Osasuna, Celta, Mallorca) to climb out of drop zone. Even a point may secure Levante's safety. Betis won 5 of last 6 home meetings with Levante, including last 3. Llorente and Cucho return for hosts after bans. xG advantage to Betis (1.71 vs 1.14). Levante motivated but Betis' home form is strong.

Top-4 thriller on Sunday night with both sides equal on 69 points — Atletico hold 3rd on head-to-head. Villarreal's home form is exceptional (78% wins, 2.39 PPG home, 1.66 xG home), having scored in last 7 home games. Atletico's away form is weaker (33% wins, 1.28 PPG away), but they bounced back recently with 2 straight wins. Last meeting was a 0-2 Atletico win at the Metropolitano. Mikautadze (12 goals) leads Villarreal's attack alongside Moreno (10). Atletico without Alvarez and Lookman in attack. H2H 33 games: Atleti 12W, Villarreal 9W, 12 draws. Open game with both attacks firing.

Champions Barcelona close their home campaign with an emotional night — Robert Lewandowski's Camp Nou farewell. The numbers are staggering: a 100% home win rate, 2.11 xG per home game and victory in all 18 home league matches this season. Real Betis travel as the better away side in this matchup statistically, but the historical gulf is vast — Barcelona have won 23 of the last 31 meetings, with these fixtures averaging 4.58 goals. Betis carry attacking threat and score in most away games, which keeps BTTS firmly in play at 61%. With Yamal and De Jong missing, Hansi Flick may rotate, yet Barcelona's home dominance and Betis' willingness to attack point to goals at both ends in a comfortable home win.

Atletico Madrid host a relegation-threatened Girona at the Metropolitano with a commanding home record — 2.39 PPG, 78% win rate and 1.85 xG per home game. Diego Simeone's side have dominated this fixture, winning the last four head-to-head meetings, and Girona's away form is among the worst in the division at just 0.94 PPG. The visitors are leaking goals on the road (1.78 xGA away) but do tend to score — Girona have netted in 78% of their away games this season. That two-way pattern, combined with H2H meetings averaging over three goals and BTTS landing 62% of the time, makes both teams scoring the standout angle. Expect Atletico to control the contest and win, but Girona's attacking output keeps the goals markets alive.

Sevilla welcome Real Madrid to the Sanchez Pizjuan in a fixture that has historically belonged to the visitors — Madrid lead the all-time head-to-head 28-8 and these meetings average a hefty 3.92 goals. Madrid travel as the stronger side on every key metric: 1.89 PPG away, 1.85 away xG and a 56% away win rate. Sevilla are solid rather than spectacular at home (1.39 PPG) and will need a near-perfect night. Madrid carry an injury list — Rodrygo, Guler, Militao, Mendy and Valverde all sidelined — but Kylian Mbappe is expected to lead the line and Bellingham returns. With both sides capable of scoring and the fixture's goal-heavy history, the over markets look the smart route even if Madrid are favoured to take the points.

Real Sociedad host Valencia at the Reale Arena looking to end a five-game winless run on home soil. The Basque side's defining trait this season has been goals — BTTS has landed in a remarkable 78% of their matches, and they carry a respectable 1.55 home xG. Valencia travel as one of the weaker road teams in the division: just 0.89 PPG away, a 22% away win rate and 1.64 xGA on their travels. That defensive fragility, paired with Sociedad's relentless both-ends pattern, pushes BTTS to the front of the card at 61%. La Real should have enough at home to take the points, but Valencia's away games rarely stay clean — expect goals on both sides in a home win.

Athletic Bilbao host Celta Vigo at a San Mames where the hosts have been resolute — 1.67 home xG against a miserly 0.97 xGA, the foundation of a 1.61 PPG home record. Celta arrive in strong away form themselves, posting 1.67 PPG on the road, which makes this one of the more evenly-matched fixtures of the round. The head-to-head favours Athletic (16 wins to 9 across 31 meetings) and these games average 2.58 goals. With Nico Williams, Vivian and Sancet all sidelined, Athletic's attacking edge is blunted, while Celta's away threat keeps the contest open. BTTS sits just below the 60% line, so the goals total is the cleaner read — a competitive game with the hosts marginally favoured.

Rayo Vallecano host Villarreal at Vallecas off the back of a fine season — unbeaten in eight home games and fresh from reaching a Conference League final. The hosts carry a strong 1.81 home xG, the highest of any side in this round bar the title contenders, and a 1.56 home PPG. Villarreal are no pushovers away (1.44 PPG) but ship goals on the road, posting a high 1.69 xGA. With Rayo's home attack firing and Villarreal's travelling defence porous, BTTS at 62% is the standout pick. The head-to-head favours Villarreal historically, but Rayo's current home form and Villarreal's defensive softness away tilt this towards an open, goal-filled contest.

Osasuna host Espanyol at El Sadar in a relegation-tinged clash — both sides sit on 42 points and need every result. Osasuna have been formidable at home, scoring in every single home game this season and posting a strong 1.78 home PPG with 1.61 xG. Espanyol travel as poor away performers (0.94 PPG, 22% away win rate) but they do leak goals, with a 1.69 away xGA. The combination of Osasuna's perfect home scoring record and Espanyol's defensive frailty pushes BTTS to a card-high 67%. With both teams desperate for points and the goal patterns aligned, this looks like an open contest — Osasuna favoured at home, but goals expected at both ends.

Levante host Mallorca in a six-pointer at the bottom — a relegation clash both sides desperately need. Levante have been excellent at home recently, winning four straight, and carry a 1.52 home xG. Mallorca arrive as the worst away side in the division by some distance: just 0.50 PPG on the road, an 11% away win rate and a crippling injury list with five players out plus a suspension. Mallorca's 1.74 away xGA underlines their defensive struggles. Levante's home momentum against a depleted, low-scoring Mallorca tilts this firmly towards the hosts. BTTS sits just below 60%, so the goal total — with Levante favoured to score freely against a patched-up defence — is the cleaner angle.

Elche host Getafe at the Martinez Valero with survival still on the agenda and a strong home record to lean on — 1.78 home PPG and a 1.59 xG. Getafe are a famously stubborn, low-scoring away side: just 1.10 away xG, a defence-first identity and only 31% BTTS across their season. Elche themselves are not a high-volume scoring team, and with Getafe's pragmatic approach the goal markets point downward — BTTS sits at a low 45% and the head-to-head between these sides has averaged under two goals. This shapes up as a tight, cagey contest. Elche's home form gives them the edge, but a low-scoring outcome is the dominant statistical read.

Real Oviedo close their season at the Carlos Tartiere on an emotional note — this is Santi Cazorla's farewell home game, and the veteran is set to start. Already relegated, Oviedo can play with freedom, and the occasion should lift the home crowd. Alaves travel as a weak away side themselves: just 0.72 PPG on the road and a 17% away win rate. Both teams are low-scoring — Oviedo's 1.18 home xG and Alaves' 1.29 away xG point to a modest goal count, and the head-to-head has averaged under two goals. BTTS at 42% reflects that. With Garces banned for Alaves, the visitors are weakened too. This profiles as a tight, low-key contest with the emotion of Cazorla's send-off the main storyline.